With the 2008 elections just over and President Obama inaugurated, it’s never to early to turn our attention to the next big electoral cycle in U.S. politics – the 2010 congressional midterms. Democrats currently have a majority of 56 seats, Republicans hold 41 seats, two seats are held by Independents (Lieberman and Sanders), and one seat – the Class II seat from Minnesota – remains vacant.
2010 will be a Class III cycle featuring 14 incumbent Republicans seeking reelection along with 13 Democrats. Six seats will be open (Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Kansas, Florida, and New Hampshire). One Senator (Michael Bennet of Colorado) will be seeking his first full term after having been appointed to an unexpired term in 2009. Two seats for unexpired terms (a Class I seat in New York and a Class II seat in Delaware) will also be on the ballot.
Solid Democratic Senators, I am predicting, include: Patty Murray in Washington and Harry Reid in Nevada. Likely Democratic Senators, I am predicting, include: Boxer, Dorgan, Lincoln, Feingold, Bayh, Mikulski, Schumer, Dodd, Leahy, and Inouye. Solid Republican Senators, I am predicting include: Crapo, Bennett, Shelby, and Isakson. Likely Republican Senators, I am predicting, include Murkowski, McCain, Thune, Coburn, Grassley, and Graham. My only lean Republican prediction is Specter.
My tossups among Senate incumbents include Vitter, Bunning, and Burr.
11 thoughts on “U.S. Senate 2010 Initial Predictions”
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Out of the Dem seats, I doubt a single one will turn into an interesting race. They will probably get some state legislator to run against Reid, but I’d be surprised if he is held under 60%. This is Nevada we’re talking about, not South Dakota.
Bennet is safe. So is the Illinois seat now. Nothing to see here.
The GOP side should be fun, I’d rank them as follows:
1. NH-Sen (open): They don’t have a prayer running against Hodes. Not much else to say.
2. OH-Sen (open): Rob Portman is overrated. Bush’s trade guy will lose big to either Fisher or Brunner.
3. MO-Sen (open): Also a favorable matchup with Carnahan vs. Blunt. The only reason it’s not higher is because this is still a state McCain narrowly carried, and has a history of close elections.
4. KY-Sen (Bunning): The Santorum of 2010, they have a terrible incumbent facing a high profile, popular statewide Democrat. Should be easy pickings, but not as easy as the states Obama did better in.
5. NC-Sen (Burr): Dole got it handed to her by a state legislator last time, and Burr has never been popular in his first term either. Very strong Democrats are looking at this race and Democrats have started dominating the state recently. If AG Cooper gets in, this race shoots up a couple spots.
6. FL-Sen (open): Gets tougher now. I doubt Crist runs, but we could still face an uphill fight against Connie Mack. I am not certain Meek or Gelber have strong statewide profiles, but they may not need it with Florida’s sizable shift towards Democrats recently.
6. PA-Sen (Specter): Should be the most expensive race of 2010. If we get someone like Schwartz in this race moves up a spot. Until then we’re in a holding pattern, but everyone knows this will be a hard fought race even with a lesser candidate. The state is too blue to keep sending Specter back, and the state GOP too nutty.
7. TX-Sen special election (open): Hutchison is running for Governor, there is no doubt about it. She must eventually resign however under state law once it becomes an official campaign, and there will be a special election to fill this, and we already have two strong Democrats in (White and Sharp). The NRSC is panicking here. The only thing they’ve got going for them is the fact that despite our advances, it is still Texas.
8. LA-Sen (Vitter): People have not forgotten about Diaper Dave and his prostitutes. Any other freshman senator would have retired over this, but not Vitter. If we get a solid candidate (maybe former congressman Don Cazayoux) in, he is eminently beatable. The fundies there don’t take kindly to prostitution.
9. KS-Sen (open): The odds of Sebelius running here seem pretty low, but even without her, an open seat is an open seat and they may end up with a pretty nutty candidate (Todd Tiahrt). One to keep an eye on.
10. AK-Sen (Murkowski): After our painful 3% loss here in 2004, her dad was defeated soundly (3rd place and only 18%) in the gubernatorial primary, and she has never been extremely popular. We’ll see if a state legislator has the ability to make this a race in an off year election.
11. IA-Sen (Grassley): The only reason I include this is because the man will be 77 on election day and there are numerous other instances of senators constantly insisting they are running again, only to suddenly decide to retire. If he runs again, ignore the race. If not, it jumps up there with NH and OH.
…we’ll keep every Dem-held seat and pick up at least three Repug-held seats in NH with Hodes; MO with Robin Carnahan; and KY with either Mongiardo or the popular A.G.
I’d call Ohio a true toss-up for now, but I’ll bet it has a clear lean by fall 2010 based on public opinion of the economy, the state of foreign policy (esp. Iraq and Afghanistan and the level of concern about terrorism), and Obama’s continued (or lack of) personal popularity. I’m confident there will be plenty of popular legislative accomplishments, too, to help, but the aforementioned three things are what will decide the close races. I’ll say the same thing about Florida as Ohio. Kansas depends exclusively on whether Sebelius runs; if yes, it’s a pickup, if not, it’s a Rethug hold.
On our side Bennet would be vulnerable if an A-list GOPer would run, but two A-listers (one, Scott McInnis, only arguably an A-lister) already declined, and I’ve read nothing of any interest from Bill Owens. And Burris won’t be the Dem nominee in 2010 no matter what happens between now and then. Either Gillibrand or a primary challenger will hold New York, and Beau Biden or any other Dem will hold Delaware. Oh, and Harry Reid won’t have a serious challenger to take advantage of any perceived vulnerability; Jon Porter is the best the Repugs have there, and he’s still very weak immediately after losing his own House seat.
Overall I see 3-5 Dem pickups, easily surpassing 60 seats.
in order of likelihood of switching:
Leaning Switch:
1. MO-Blunt is as bad as a candidate as Hulshof was in 2008. He will lose to Carnahan. If Steelman somehow wins the nomination, this race will move down.
2. OH-Portman is going to be crushed for being the guy supporting shipping jobs from Ohio to China.
3. NH-State leaning blue and Hodes a good candidate. The only reason why this is #3 is because Repubs have killed themselves in the Midwest thanks to Bush, the economy, and opposition to the stimulus.
4. KY-Bunning is an awful candidate, as bad as we have seen in the last few years. But this is still a Southern red state.
Toss-Up
5. NC- As long as the Dems get a decent candidate, they have a 50/50 chance of picking it up.
6. FL- If Crist gets in and wins his primary (which is not guaranteed now), this race would move down. If the Dems nominate someone other than Iorio (i.e. Meek or Gelber), this leans Repub. Unless Crist is beaten by a wingnut in the primary, in that case, any Democrat will win the race.
Lean/Likely Retention
7. PA- Specter is a slight favorite to hold this seat, if he wins the primary. If he loses to a wingnut, this seat will move to the top with any decent Democrat.
8. IL- I still consider Illinois the most likely Dem seat to flip. As long as Burris is not the nominee, the Dem should be the favorite to retain it, as long as the Dem has no ethical issues. If Burris is the nominee, then this moves to Toss-Up.
9. NY- If Gillibrand is primaried and Peter King or Guiliani runs, the Repub may make a game out of it.
10. NV- Reid is vulnerable, but the Repubs don’t have any real challengers in a state that Obama won by 12%.
11. CO-Bennet is safer than he looks and this race will drop out without a decent challenger.
Others:
KS- If Sebelius is not picked for HHS and runs for Senate, this seat would move to Toss-Up, if not Lean Takeover.
CT-If there is more dirt about Dodd, and Rob Simmons runs, then this seat moves to Lean Retention.
ND, CA, If Hoeven or Arnold runs, then these seats may move to Lean Retention.